Current community forecast
No 90.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 29, 24, 3:53 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Markus Söder is Minister-President of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), a party primarily active in Bavaria and the sister party to the large Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
- Together, these parties form a parliamentary group in the Bundestag known as the Union.
- While the Chancellor candidate for this group has predominantly been from the CDU, which operates across Germany except in Bavaria, there is historical precedent for a CSU member to be nominated.
- Notably, Franz Josef Strauss from the CSU was the Chancellor candidate in 1980.
- Söder’s personal ambitions became particularly evident during the leadership contest within the Union in 2021.
- Söder showed a keen interest in being the Chancellor candidate for the 2021 federal elections.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor? resolve?
- Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2040.
- How is Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Markus Söder is Minister-President of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), a party primarily active in Bavaria and the sister party to the large Christian Democratic Union (CDU).