Selected book midpoint
No Next Chancellor before 2028 · —
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Stored reference
No Next Chancellor before 2028 64.8%Leader of 13 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
No Next Chancellor before 2028 64.8%Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$343.9
Liquidity
$226.4K
High liquidityOpen interest
$14.2K
Bid / Ask
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No Next Chancellor before 2028Spread
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Comments
3
7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 9:29 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · No Next Chancellor before 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWill a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany?
FutuurWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsRules
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
- This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President.
- Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “the named outcome”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.