Current implied probability
No Next Chancellor before 2028 54%+3.5ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$133.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 9:29 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
PolymarketRules
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
- This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President.
- Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “the named outcome”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.