Current community forecast
No 89.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 24, 2:02 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
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SmarketsRules
resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 16, 2026.
- When does Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030