Will a Liberal MP or Senator join Community Strong Australia by the next Australian federal election?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 1:37 AM UTCMay 19, 28, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between 25 June 2026 and the polling day of the next Australian federal election (currently scheduled for 20 May 2028), any sitting Member of the House of Representatives or Senator who is a member of the Liberal Party of Australia (including the Liberal National Party of Queensland or the Country Liberal Party who sit in the Liberal party room) formally joins the political party Community Strong Australia.
- "Formally joining" will be verified via official statements from the MP, Community Strong Australia, updates on the Parliament of Australia website (aph.gov.au), or a consensus of credible media outlets.
- If a sitting Liberal MP resigns or is expelled from the Liberal Party, sits as an independent, and then joins Community Strong Australia prior to the next federal election, this will still resolve the market to YES.
- If the next Australian federal election polling day occurs and no sitting Liberal MP has formally joined Community Strong Australia, this market will resolve to NO.
- If Community Strong Australia is dissolved or merges into another entity prior to any Liberal MP joining, the market will resolve to NO unless a Liberal MP joined before the dissolution/merger occurred.
