Current community forecast
Google 86.2%+30.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+66.2 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 4, 26, 6:57 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Which company's model will be ranked #1 on the Arena (formerly LMArena) text leaderboard at the end of October 2026?
- Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text (formerly lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), default view as served to a logged-out visitor, with no filters or categories changed.
- How it resolves: I check the leaderboard as soon as possible after 2026-10-31 23:59 UTC.
- The answer is the company that developed the model listed in first position (highest Score).
- If the page shows a tie on the top Score between models from different companies, the market resolves to those companies in equal shares.
- If a live check isn't possible, I'll use the first Wayback Machine snapshot of that URL after the deadline.
