Current community forecast
Anthropic 89.1%+64.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+64.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 26, 11:11 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a <$20/mo subscription on November 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company will have the #1 model on the Arena text leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI Agent achieve an average score of 95% or higher on the GAIA Leaderboard on December 31, 2026?
ForecastExNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the lab whose model is ranked **#1 on the arena.ai Agent leaderboard** (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, default view, sorted by Net Improvement) when I check it on **November 2, 2026, at or after 17:00 UTC**.
- I will save a Wayback Machine snapshot of the page at that time and link it in a comment. **Answers:** - **Anthropic**: any Claude model (Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, any effort setting) - **OpenAI**: any GPT / o-series model - **Google**: any Gemini or Gemma model (Google DeepMind) - **the named outcome**: everyone else (xAI/SpaceXAI, Meta, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Z.ai, Alibaba, Mistral, etc.) **State at creation (Oct 6, 2026):** #1 Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) at +14.31%, #2 Claude Opus 5.5 (High) +13.82%, #3 Claude Sonnet 5.5 (Max) +12.52%, #4 GPT 6 Astra (Max) +12.27%, #5 GPT 6.1 Sol (Max) +11.23%.
- Best Google: Gemini 4 Argon (High), #10 at +7.57%. 51 models listed. **Edge cases:** - Only the rank shown on the page counts.
- Preliminary/"new" badges don't matter; if the page lists a model at position 1, its lab wins.
- If two models are shown tied at #1, the one listed first on the page wins. - If the page is down on Nov 2, I use the nearest Wayback Machine snapshot taken between Nov 1 and Nov 3, 2026 (closest to 17:00 UTC Nov 2). - If the Agent leaderboard is discontinued or renamed, I use its direct successor on arena.ai; if there is none, the market resolves N/A. Arena notes that scores can move as more sessions come in and when new models join, so a new release in October could reshuffle the top even before it settles.
