Current implied probability
None in 2026 73.1%-1.5ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
None in 2026 73.1%-1.5ptMarket quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$17.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
3
7d Change
-1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Feb 13, 26, 9:45 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsChatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
- If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
- If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
