Current implied probability
None in 2026 75%-1.5ptLeader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$390.7
Liquidity
$16.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
75.0% / 80.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 13, 26, 9:45 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
None in 202678%
Volume trend
$391Jul 227d of dataJul 29
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This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
- If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
- If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
- If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.