Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 77%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 25, 3:58 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Life360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsMercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3
KalshiSpotify monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Bluesky publicly reports, or a credible third-party source confirms, that the platform has exceeded 50 million monthly active users (MAU) at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Acceptable sources for resolution:
- Official Bluesky blog posts, press releases, or SEC filings
- Statements from Bluesky CEO Jay Graber or official Bluesky accounts
- Reporting from major outlets (NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, The Verge, TechCrunch) citing internal data or people familiar with the matter
Open markets
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.3M
- 24h Vol
- $157.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-7.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-29.0pt24%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $16.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria