Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 25, 3:58 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Bluesky publicly reports, or a credible third-party source confirms, that the platform has exceeded 50 million monthly active users (MAU) at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Acceptable sources for resolution:
- Official Bluesky blog posts, press releases, or SEC filings
- Statements from Bluesky CEO Jay Graber or official Bluesky accounts
- Reporting from major outlets (NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, The Verge, TechCrunch) citing internal data or people familiar with the matter
