Current implied probability
Moonshot 38%Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$5K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 12:04 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
PolymarketMajor company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $79,750 or above99%
- $79,500 or above99%
- $79,000 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 20, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
- $80,700 or above99%
- $80,600 or above99%
- $80,200 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $589.4K
- 24h Vol
- $438.7K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above+1.0pt98%
- $65,500 or above98%
- $73,500 or above-2.0pt97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $588.5K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes57%
- No43%
- Total Vol
- $327.1K
- 24h Vol
- $326.6K
KALSHIETH price on Sep 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $1,800 or above99%
- $2,560 or above99%
- $2,000 or above98%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $295.7K
- 24h Vol
- $295.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt41.8%
- 200-219+3.0pt35.9%
- 220-239-4.5pt9.7%
+23 more outcomes
- Where will it rain on Sep 20, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 19 - September 21, 2026?
- Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 20, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- Google market share this week
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 20, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- ETH price range on Sep 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November??
- Polymarket prices Moonshot at 38% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November? resolve?
- Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.