Current implied probability
OpenAI 58%-0.5ptLeader of 19 outcomes
OpenAI 58%-0.5ptMarket quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5K
Liquidity
$5.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+29.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 2:02 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWhich lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Agent leaderboard on November 2, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.