KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2027 64%-8.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$676.3
Liquidity
$924.9
Low liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 12, 26, 10:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
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PolymarketRules
If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The GuardianNational Academy of Sciences of the United StatesFinancial TimesAssociated Pressthe Clay Mathematics InstituteNaturearXiv preprint repository operated by Cornell UniversityRoyal Societythe American Mathematical Societythe International Mathematical UnionThe Washington Postthe New York TimesMax Planck SocietyAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceBritish Broadcasting CorporationQuanta MagazineThe Wall Street JournalFrench Academy of SciencesBloomberg NewsReutersProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesThe Economist
- A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either:
- A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as originally formulated by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published in a reputable peer-reviewed mathematics or scientific journal.
- CMI or another recognized academic governing or recognition body officially states that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work.
- At least two Source Agencies themselves report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work.
- A preprint, announcement, blog post, conference presentation, technical report, or machine-checked formalization does NOT by itself constitute a solution, but may be the written work relied upon for official recognition or qualifying Source Agency reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem??
- Kalshi prices Before 2027 at 64% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? resolve?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.