KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before 2028 72%Leader of 6 outcomes
Before 2028 72%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$987
Open interest
$10.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Sep 12, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic Claims to Solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI solve a new millennium prize problem by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRules
If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The GuardianNational Academy of Sciences of the United StatesFinancial TimesAssociated Pressthe Clay Mathematics InstituteScienceNaturearXiv preprint repository operated by Cornell UniversityRoyal Societythe American Mathematical Societythe International Mathematical UnionThe Washington Postthe New York TimesMax Planck SocietyAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceBritish Broadcasting CorporationQuanta MagazineThe Wall Street JournalFrench Academy of SciencesBloomberg NewsReutersProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesScientific AmericanThe Economist
- A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as originally formulated by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published in a reputable peer-reviewed mathematics or scientific journal. CMI or another recognized academic governing or recognition body officially states that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies themselves report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work. A preprint, announcement, blog post, conference presentation, technical report, or machine-checked formalization does NOT by itself constitute a solution, but may be the written work relied upon for official recognition or qualifying Source Agency reporting. Award of a Millennium Prize by CMI is NOT required. Partial results, special cases, unrelated reformulations, results conditional on unproven assumptions, and findings that the problem is independent of or undecidable within its framework do NOT count. The result must establish the truth or falsity of the problem as originally formulated. A solution is attributed to AI lab when Source Agencies report that AI lab, its personnel, or an AI system developed and operated by it produced the solution in whole or substantial part, and the lab or system is credited as an author, contributor, or producer. Collaborative work qualifies; independent third-party use of the lab's publicly available model or product without such participation or credit does NOT. Each Millennium Prize Problem counts at most once. Problems solved before time period do NOT count. A purported solution that is retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, rescinded, disavowed, or reported to contain an unresolved identified error before Expiration does NOT count.
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2028
- If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.