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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

TechOne-OffSpace6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Above 140
Above 140 87%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$15.8

Liquidity

$1.8K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

87.0% / 88.0%

Spread

1.1%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Dec 9, 25, 3:00 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Above 14087%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

0.1%6mo
140-159
140-159
-0.4%58%
160-179
160-179
-3.0%26%
180-199
180-199
+0.2%9%

+4 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$303.5K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
  • If SpaceX has more than 140 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If SpaceX has more than 160 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If SpaceX has more than 180 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
  • If SpaceX has more than 140 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If SpaceX has more than 160 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If SpaceX has more than 180 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.