Current implied probability
Google 59%+27.5%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.9K
Liquidity
$77.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
58.0% / 59.0%
Spread
1.7%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 12:55 AMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Google59%
Volume trend
$5.9kJul 216d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$10.5KSpaceX: 86%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
$8.1KAnthropic: 75%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which company has best AI model end of August?
$7.4KAnthropic: 91%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
$7KBy Dec 31, 2025: 74%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will happen successfully during Starship flight 13?
$1.8KMax Q: 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
$1.4K6: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
SK Group Partners with NVIDIA to Advance AI Infrastructure via $500B InvestmentBlockchain Reporter
Claude Opus 5 Outscores Fable 5 on Most Benchmarks—At Half the PriceDecrypt
Everyone calls SpaceX a Bitcoin proxy. The math says 0.08%Crypto News
FILE Price Prediction: Bears Losing Steam at the Lower Band — But Every Moving Average Is a CeilingBlockchain.News
Gonka Co-Creators Discuss Decentralized AI Compute and GPU FutureBlockchain ReporterFILE Price Prediction: Bears Hold the Chart, But Whales Are Loading — $0.72 Is the LineBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).