Current community forecast
20 80.6%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
111
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 8, 24, 1:42 PM UTCJul 2, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWill we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Both must be on solid ground or a landing ship, mostly intact, and stationary, on the same flight.
- Starship must have flown to over 100 km on that flight.
- For details, this question will use the same criteria as these:
- @/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
- @/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
- @/EvanDaniel/which-happens-first-starship-superh
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+26.0pt60.4%
- 180-199-7.5pt32.7%
- 200-219-9.9pt4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $371.9K
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.9%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.3%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $297.1K
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Total Vol
- $254K
- 24h Vol
- $250.1K
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - Daily
- Meta (META) Up or Down - Daily
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 10, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 10, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster??
- Manifold Markets prices 20 at 81% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? resolve?
- By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? is scheduled to resolve on July 2, 2027.
- How is By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Both must be on solid ground or a landing ship, mostly intact, and stationary, on the same flight.