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  3. When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold Markets

When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?

TechOne-OffSpace8y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
2026 or earlier 4.7%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters

17

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Mar 7, 24, 12:46 AMJan 1, 35, 12:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

2026 or earlier5%

Rules

Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch

Manifold Markets
  • Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
  • The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
  • Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
  • The launches themselves don't need to be successful
  • Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle

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Rules

Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch

Manifold Markets
  • Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
  • The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
  • Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
  • The launches themselves don't need to be successful
  • Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle