Current community forecast
2035 or earlier 84.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 24, 12:46 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs?
Manifold MarketsBy which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch
- Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
- Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
- The launches themselves don't need to be successful
- Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle