Current community forecast
2035 or earlier 59.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 24, 2:27 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsBy which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Image Edit AI end of September?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again within 24hrs of that landing
- The launches aren't required to be successful
- Answers may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain
- Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle
- UTC is used for dates
- Related markets:
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+26.0pt60.4%
- 180-199-7.5pt32.7%
- 200-219-9.9pt4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $371.9K
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.9%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.3%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $297.1K
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Total Vol
- $254K
- 24h Vol
- $250.1K
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - Daily
- Meta (META) Up or Down - Daily
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 10, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 10, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs??
- Manifold Markets prices 2035 or earlier at 59% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs? resolve?
- When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again within 24hrs of that landing