Current community forecast
2035 or earlier 59.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 24, 2:27 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a Starship first relaunch in under 24hrs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsBy which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again within 24hrs of that landing
- The launches aren't required to be successful
- Answers may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain
- Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle
- UTC is used for dates
- Related markets: