Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2035 or earlier 71.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 24, 3:55 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
KalshiWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES once an individual Starship second stage launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch
- Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the booster or launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
- Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
- The launches themselves don't need to be successful
- Starship does not need to be its exact name but it must be the second stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+26.0pt60.4%
- 180-199-7.5pt32.7%
- 200-219-9.9pt4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $371.9K
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.9%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.3%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $297.1K
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Total Vol
- $254K
- 24h Vol
- $250.1K
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - Daily
- Meta (META) Up or Down - Daily
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 10, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 10, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower??
- Manifold Markets prices 2035 or earlier at 72% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower? resolve?
- When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES once an individual Starship second stage launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch