Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2035 or earlier 71.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 24, 3:55 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES once an individual Starship second stage launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch
- Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the booster or launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
- Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
- The launches themselves don't need to be successful
- Starship does not need to be its exact name but it must be the second stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle