Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast2035 or earlier 71.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 24, 3:55 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWhich will happen first: AGI, or a pile of sand at my local park being removed?
Manifold MarketsAI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?
Manifold MarketsWill there be commonly sold shirataki noodles sold *without being wrapped in plastic* by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
PolymarketBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves YES once an individual Starship second stage launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch
- Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the booster or launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
- Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
- The launches themselves don't need to be successful
- Starship does not need to be its exact name but it must be the second stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle