What are the current odds for Which will happen first: AGI, or a pile of sand at my local park being removed??

Manifold Markets prices Pile of sand removed at 78.4% as of October 26, 2026.

Which will happen first: AGI, or a pile of sand at my local park being removed?

One-OffAI Tech3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Pile of sand removed 78.4%

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Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Mar 24, 24, 8:47 PM UTCApr 1, 30, 3:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This pile of sand has been here for at least 3 years.

I presume they want to use it for some kind of construction purpose.
Every time I see it I think about the insane progress happening in the tech world and yet how we are still completely incapable of building or doing anything in the real world.
[image]For the purposes of this question, AGI uses the Metaculus definition of weak AGI
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/