PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 140-164
Resolved: Oct 31, 2026, 6:01 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
140-164
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
33%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
115-1398%
40-640%
165-1890%
65-8919%
140-164100%
190-2146%
215-2391%
240+0%
90-11452%
<400%
140-164Won
115-139Lost
165-189Lost
190-214Lost
215-239Lost
240+Lost
40-64Lost
65-89Lost
90-114Lost
<40Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Elon Musk # tweets October 31 - November 2, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets November 2 - November 4, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk tweets "Manifold Markets" before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
- The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
