Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 10:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 87%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingAug 20, 25, 6:25 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:56 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?
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PolymarketWhich year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
Manifold MarketsWill Manifold Markets (or its web host) partner with Project Glasswing to bolster its own cybersecurity by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Elon Musk posts a message on X (formerly Twitter) containing the exact phrase "Manifold Markets" before January 1, 2027.
- Case-insensitive.
- The post must be publicly posted by Elon Musk’s official account @elonmusk.
- Retweets do not count.
- I will also accept "Manifoldmarkets" or any links to Manifold containing "Manifold.markets" in the tweet.
- I will NOT accept any other variants, such as "Manifold, markets" or "Manifold market".
