Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
RegulationCrime & Justice3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 84%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.2 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 29, 24, 12:48 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Legal action includes a government entity suing or fining Manifold.
- At the start of each new year the previous year will resolve NO and a new option will be added to the market (market end date will also be pushed forward by one year).
- When the first fine or legal proceeding happens all outstanding answers will resolve NO except for the current year which will resolve YES.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.0pt83.2%
- Yes+2.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.6M
- 24h Vol
- $77.9K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+5.0pt42%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt34%
- Before Apr 1, 202723%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.7M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt98%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt95%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
POLYMARKETSB Energy IPO by which date?
- December 3189%
- October 3173%
- September 3063%
- Total Vol
- $7K
- 24h Vol
- $7K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+4.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+1.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt50%
+8 more outcomes
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
- Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 84% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ? resolve?
- Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Legal action includes a government entity suing or fining Manifold.