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Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Regulation Crime & Justice5mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 22, 2026, 9:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

2024 0.9%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

23

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 33 days ago

Stale

Apr 29, 24, 12:48 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

20241%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Legal action includes a government entity suing or fining Manifold.

At the start of each new year the previous year will resolve NO and a new option will be added to the market (market end date will also be pushed forward by one year).
When the first fine or legal proceeding happens all outstanding answers will resolve NO except for the current year which will resolve YES.

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Rules

Legal action includes a government entity suing or fining Manifold.

At the start of each new year the previous year will resolve NO and a new option will be added to the market (market end date will also be pushed forward by one year).
When the first fine or legal proceeding happens all outstanding answers will resolve NO except for the current year which will resolve YES.