Before 2030 infectious agent created by humans at a non-governmental entity kills 5% of human population.
Health & MedicineOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 23, 7:07 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Before 2030, humans who are part of a non-governmental entity create an infectious agent that kills over 5% of humans.
- The humans and their agency have to take credit.
- The agency is a private entity that does not control a sovereign state and does not wish to have control of a sovereign state.
- Culpability must be independently confirmed.
- Casualty figures must come from an agency which has the ability to make a reliable estimate.
- If an AGI is involved in the creation of the pathogen, it must not have had the idea to create it.
