PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityUganda 100%+37.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$2.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 31.0%
Spread
3000.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-3.0%
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
May 22, 26, 5:07 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
South Sudan63%
Compare venues· Uganda
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall85% match · auto | Medium | 99% | 0pt | $2.7K | $129.8K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Medium | 100% | +1pt | $1.5K | $2.5K | 16 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
5.0%5mo
99%
+1.0%54%
+1.0%30%
+14 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$325.7K
24h Vol$2.7K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
- The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.0k76.0%KALSHIKenya — No9d ago
KALSHIKenya — No9d agoVolume trend
$1.5kJul 224d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
- The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.