Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.8%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 25, 26, 6:15 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one laboratory-confirmed case of Ebola virus disease (EVD) is reported in North America (defined as the United States, Canada, Mexico, Central America, or the Antilles) by a national public health authority (e.g., the CDC in the United States, the Public Health Agency of Canada, the Secretariat of Health in Mexico, etc.) before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
- If no such case is confirmed by the specified deadline, the market will resolve to "No." Cases that are suspected but not confirmed by official government health agencies do not count as a resolution for "Yes."
- Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Evacuees brought to North America for quarantine/treatment count toward resolution, provided they are laboratory-confirmed cases reported by a national public health authority.