PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Paul Mescal 35%-8.7ptLeader of 49 outcomes
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$806.5
Liquidity
$10.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
15.7% / 16.9%
Spread
1.2 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-9.1 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
May 18, 26, 11:03 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Paul Mescal35%
Compare venues· Paul Mescal
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall82% match · linked | Medium | 42% | — | $1.8K | $746.3K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Medium | 35% | — | $806.5 | $10.6K | 21 minutes ago | |
| PolymarketMost active82% match · linked | Low | 0% | — | $12.8K | $0 | 25 days ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 38% | — | — | — | 27 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Next James Bond actor?
0.2 ptsClosed
Resolved
No Bond chosen (100%)
+0.2pt100%
-0.1pt0%
0%
+28 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$3.9M
24h Vol$12.8K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
3y
+2.0pt42%
21%
16%
+21 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$1.8K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Next James Bond? (Including actually likely answers)
2y
38.3%
27.4%
5.3%
+19 more outcomes
Community forecast29 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
- If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.9k88.0%KALSHITom Holland — No5d ago
KALSHITom Holland — No5d ago$1.3k49.0%KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago
KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago$4.3k96.0%KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No11d ago
KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No11d ago$4.4k96.0%KALSHIRichard Madden — No11d ago
KALSHIRichard Madden — No11d ago$2.9k96.0%KALSHICharlie Hunnam — No11d ago
KALSHICharlie Hunnam — No11d agoVolume trend
$807Jul 226d of dataJul 27
Related Markets
Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?
$12.2KYes: 98.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will MrBeast hit ___ Million subscribers by July 31?
$4K508m: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETFable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 15?
$2.8KYes: 97.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSFable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 31?
$2KYes: 96.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
$327.9Yes: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by July 31?
$313.7133 billion: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
NVIDIA Vera CPU Powers Faster Chip Design for Next-Gen GPUsBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA, Applied Materials Accelerate Semiconductor InnovationBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA (NVDA) Expands Toolkit With PhysicsNeMo and CUDA-XBlockchain.News
NAVER, NVIDIA, Brookfield to Triple Korea AI Factory to 200 MW by 2028Blockchain.News
SK Group Partners with NVIDIA to Advance AI Infrastructure via $500B InvestmentBlockchain Reporter
Claude Opus 5 Outscores Fable 5 on Most Benchmarks—At Half the PriceDecryptRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
- If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.