KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityCallum Turner 42%+2.0ptLeader of 24 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.8K
Liquidity
$746.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Jun 24, 25, 1:05 AMJan 1, 30, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Aaron Pierre7%
Compare venues· Callum Turner
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 42% | — | $1.8K | $746.3K | 29 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active87% match · verified | Low | 0% | — | $12.8K | $0 | 25 days ago | Open → |
| Polymarket82% match · linked | Low | 31% | — | $806.5 | $10.9K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 38% | — | — | — | 27 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Next James Bond actor?
0.2 ptsClosed
Resolved
No Bond chosen (100%)
+0.2pt100%
-0.1pt0%
0%
+28 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$3.9M
24h Vol$12.8K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Next James Bond? (Including actually likely answers)
2y
38.3%
27.4%
5.3%
+19 more outcomes
Community forecast29 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Next James Bond actor?
4.3 pts5mo
-1.3pt32%
31%
+0.2pt31%
+46 more outcomes
46 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$18.1K
24h Vol$806.5
POLYMARKETRules
If Aaron Pierre is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr.
- No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.
- If Aaron Taylor-Johnson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Tom Hardy is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Henry Cavill is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.9k88.0%KALSHITom Holland — No5d ago
KALSHITom Holland — No5d ago$1.3k49.0%KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago
KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago$4.3k96.0%KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No11d ago
KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No11d ago$4.4k96.0%KALSHIRichard Madden — No11d ago
KALSHIRichard Madden — No11d ago$2.9k96.0%KALSHICharlie Hunnam — No11d ago
KALSHICharlie Hunnam — No11d agoVolume trend
$1.8kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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Rules
If Aaron Pierre is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr.
- No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.
- If Aaron Taylor-Johnson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Tom Hardy is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Henry Cavill is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.