Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 29, 2026, 3:44 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastCallum Turner 38.3%Leader of 22 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 27 days ago
StaleJun 27, 25, 11:58 PMJan 1, 29, 10:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Henry Cavill3%
Compare venues· Callum Turner
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall82% match · linked | Medium | 42% | — | $1.8K | $746.3K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket82% match · verified | Medium | 31% | — | $806.5 | $10.6K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketMost active82% match · verified | Low | 0% | — | $12.8K | $0 | 25 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 38% | — | — | — | 27 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Next James Bond actor?
0.2 ptsClosed
Resolved
No Bond chosen (100%)
+0.2pt100%
-0.1pt0%
0%
+28 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$3.9M
24h Vol$12.8K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
3y
+2.0pt42%
21%
16%
+21 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$1.8K
KALSHIAlso available on Polymarket
Next James Bond actor?
7.8 pts5mo
-8.7pt35%
31%
-0.3pt30%
+46 more outcomes
63 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$18.1K
24h Vol$806.5
POLYMARKETRules
Should be self-explanatory.
- Feel free to ask questions in the comments.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.9k88.0%KALSHITom Holland — No5d ago
KALSHITom Holland — No5d ago$1.3k49.0%KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago
KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago$4.3k96.0%KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No11d ago
KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No11d ago$4.4k96.0%KALSHIRichard Madden — No11d ago
KALSHIRichard Madden — No11d ago$2.9k96.0%KALSHICharlie Hunnam — No11d ago
KALSHICharlie Hunnam — No11d agoRelated Markets
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
Should be self-explanatory.
- Feel free to ask questions in the comments.