KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Ralph Fiennes 38%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
23 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$324.4
Low liquidityMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 8, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
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KalshiNext James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?
Manifold MarketsWho will direct the next James Bond Film?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome performs/ is announced as M in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:007.com
- For the purposes of this Contract, the named outcome satisfies the Payout Criterion if either:
- Official Announcement: the named outcome is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform M in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR
- Actual Performance: the named outcome appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as M in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film.
- Additional clarification(s):
- If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but the named outcome was officially announced in M, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.”
Open markets
EntertainmentKALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey-1.0pt50%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5M
- 24h Vol
- $104.5K
KALSHITop US Netflix Show this week?
- Crew Girl: Season 142.6%
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1+16.0pt31.1%
- NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs Rams12.3%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.4K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+1.0pt24.8%
- Dee Valladares+4.0pt16.5%
- Barrett Pfeiffer13.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.8M
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-1.0pt98%
- Above 50-1.0pt96%
- Above 55-5.0pt83%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $356.5K
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 80-90M+33.0pt76%
- 70-80M-34.0pt23%
- 90M+-1.3pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+4.0pt49%
- Callum Turner+1.0pt25%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt12%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
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- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
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- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 10, 2026
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- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next James Bond film: Actor cast as M?
- Kalshi prices Ralph Fiennes at 38% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Next James Bond film: Actor cast as M resolve?
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as M is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Next James Bond film: Actor cast as M settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome performs/ is announced as M in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.