KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Cillian Murphy 25.7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$935.5
Low liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 8, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as Q
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actress cast as Moneypenny
KalshiNext James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?
Manifold MarketsWho will direct the next James Bond Film?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome performs/ is announced as The Villain in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:007.com
- For the purposes of this Contract, the named outcome satisfies the Payout Criterion if either:
- Official Announcement: the named outcome is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform The Villain in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR
- Actual Performance: the named outcome appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as The Villain in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film.
- Additional clarification(s):
- If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but the named outcome was officially announced in The Villain, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.”
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain?
- Kalshi prices Cillian Murphy at 26% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Next James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain resolve?
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Next James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome performs/ is announced as The Villain in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.