Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 98.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 23, 10:09 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if Daniel Craig regenerates (or otherwise changes) into Matt Smith.
Open markets
EntertainmentKALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey-1.0pt50%
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KALSHITop US Netflix Show this week?
- Crew Girl: Season 142.6%
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1+16.0pt31.1%
- NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs Rams12.3%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.4K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+1.0pt24.8%
- Dee Valladares+4.0pt16.5%
- Barrett Pfeiffer13.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-1.0pt98%
- Above 50-1.0pt96%
- Above 55-5.0pt83%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $356.5K
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 80-90M+33.0pt76%
- 70-80M-34.0pt23%
- 90M+-1.3pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+4.0pt49%
- Callum Turner+1.0pt25%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt12%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Matt Smith be the next James Bond??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Matt Smith be the next James Bond? resolve?
- Will Matt Smith be the next James Bond? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Matt Smith be the next James Bond? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Daniel Craig regenerates (or otherwise changes) into Matt Smith.