Current implied probability
Yes 35%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$103.1
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes35%
Compare venues· No
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FutuurThis pageMost active | 65% | — | $103.1 | $0 | 10 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets | 87% | — | — | — | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
5mo
12.6%
87.4%
Community forecast51 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$17.8K
24h Vol$20
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
$41.4KBefore July 17th: 31%
KALSHI
KALSHI
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13
$11.1KAugust 31: 89%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWhen will Starship flight 13 happen?
$10.9KBefore 2026-02-01: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
$7KBy Dec 31, 2025: 74%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
$5.9K5 or more: 15%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
$5.1KDecember 31: 24%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Google Unveils Gemini 3.5, Android 17 AI Features in June 2026Blockchain.News
NVIDIA Explores RLVR for AI Agents with Nemotron 3 SuperBlockchain.News
X.ai Launches No-Code Voice Agent Builder for Grok VoiceBlockchain.NewsTogether AI Raises $800M Series C for Open-Source AI PushBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA Expands U.S. AI Manufacturing with $500B VisionBlockchain.News
NVIDIA Adds Vulkan Descriptor Heaps Support, Boosting GPU PerformanceBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.