Current implied probability
No 84%
No 84%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityTraders
7
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market predicts whether SpaceX will successfully demonstrate in-orbit refueling of a Starship vehicle during calendar year 2026.
- If, during this period, SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship vehicle to another Starship vehicle while both are in Earth orbit, and the transfer is publicly confirmed by SpaceX as a successful propellant transfer, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is SpaceX's official communications (spacex.com, X account @SpaceX, official mission webcasts), supported by NASA and FAA mission reports where applicable.
- A consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion may be used to confirm the demonstration.
- In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.