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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

AIOne-OffSpaceTech5y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
By Dec 31, 2025
By Dec 31, 2025 74%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters

33

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Jan 7, 25, 4:56 AMJan 1, 32, 5:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

By Dec 31, 202574%

Rules

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

Manifold Markets
  • In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
  • Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
  • Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
  • Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
  • The options would resolve as follows:

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Rules

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

Manifold Markets
  • In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
  • Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
  • Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
  • Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
  • The options would resolve as follows: