When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

AIOne-OffSpace Tech5y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 6, 2026, 10:04 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

By Dec 31, 2030 98.9%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 52 days ago

Stale

Jan 7, 25, 4:56 AMJan 1, 32, 5:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

By Dec 31, 202574%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
The options would resolve as follows:

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When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

AIOne-OffSpace Tech5y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 6, 2026, 10:04 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

By Dec 31, 2030 98.9%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 52 days ago

Stale

Jan 7, 25, 4:56 AMJan 1, 32, 5:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

By Dec 31, 202574%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
The options would resolve as follows:

Related Markets

What will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029

$284.2

It IPOs at an IPO Price that gives a $1trillion or higher valuation: 61.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who cancels the SpaceX–Anthropic compute deal first?

Elon Musk (props)

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026: 0%