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Current community forecast
By Dec 31, 2030 98.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
By Dec 31, 2030 98.5%Forecasters
35
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 25, 4:56 AM UTCJan 1, 32, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
