Current community forecast
Before 2028-01-01 95.5%Leader of 32 outcomes
Before 2028-01-01 95.5%Forecasters
84
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingJun 6, 24, 5:44 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
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FutuurSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
In June 2024 SpaceX demonstrated successful descent for both first and second stages of the Starship rocket.
- The potential next stage would be to try to land one or both stages.
- This market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX manages to land the second stage of Starship rocket after an orbital or suborbital flight.
- The spacecraft has to be landed on land and in one piece.
- It should presumably be captured by the launch tower, but other ways of landing on land or on a barge would also qualify.
- The rocket can sustain some damage, but the payload has to stay intact.
