Current community forecast
No 87.7%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 16, 23, 11:29 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
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PolymarketRules
Question will resolve Yes if a landing occurs if a Starship rocket operated by SpaceX lands on Mars before January 1st 2030.
- Landing will count as a success if the rocket does not explode on impact, and the majority of the payload is in tact.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030? resolve?
- Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Question will resolve Yes if a landing occurs if a Starship rocket operated by SpaceX lands on Mars before January 1st 2030.