What are the current odds for Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 76.9% as of October 27, 2026.

How is Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.

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Current community forecast

No 76.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 21 hours ago

Stale

Nov 3, 25, 6:02 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

"To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.

It doesn't have to be a landing; an orbit around the planet or a close flyby also qualify.
However simply going out past Mars's orbital distance from the sun, while not actually approaching the planet itself, does not count.
"Send" means that the rocket actually started on its mission.
A mission that is simply scheduled for the future does not count.
A mission that lifts off and then blows up 2 feet above the launch pad still counts.