Current community forecast
Yes 79.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 23, 1:58 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
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Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martian_Moons_eXploration_(MMX)
- https://www.mmx.jaxa.jp/en/
- Successful landing will be defined as the spacecraft being able to send and receive information.
- https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-mmx-successfully-return-sample
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.6pt9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $106.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No54.5%
- Yes45.5%
- Total Vol
- $118.3K
- 24h Vol
- $30.3K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic-0.6pt58.8%
- SpaceX+0.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI-0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt16.7%
- Google+0.3pt7.8%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will MMX successfully land on Phobos??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will MMX successfully land on Phobos? resolve?
- Will MMX successfully land on Phobos? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will MMX successfully land on Phobos? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martian_Moons_eXploration_(MMX)