Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
OpenAI 70%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Liquidity
$20.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+15.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 13, 26, 12:05 AMNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores.
- If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
