Current implied probability
Anthropic 48%Leader of 6 outcomes
Anthropic 48%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.7K
Medium liquidityTraders
26
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This set of markets predicts which company will own the AI model with the highest Arena Score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard published at lmarena.ai, specifically the table shown under the “Leaderboard” tab with style controls turned off.
- The relevant data will be the Arena Score values displayed on lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, checked on December 31, 2026.
- If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable at the scheduled check time, these markets will remain open and will resolve based on the first moment the leaderboard becomes available again.
- If two or more models are tied for the highest Arena Score at check time, the markets will be resolved in favor of the company whose name, as listed among the markets, comes first in alphabetical order.
- Futuur will resolve these markets based on the substantive ranking outcome shown by the leaderboard, not on minor formatting or presentation changes.