Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastYes 12.6%
Forecasters
51
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 10:36 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes13%
Compare venues· No
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FutuurMost active | 65% | — | $103.1 | $0 | 27 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | 87% | — | — | — | 9 minutes ago |
Also available on Futuur
Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Closed
35%
65%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$103.1
24h Vol$103.1
FUTUURRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.