Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 78.1%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 26, 11:05 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
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Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets(Musk Predicition) Will SpaceX Launch Spacebound Rockets every hour within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX successfully launches at least one non-SpaceX payload on a Starship mission before January 1, 2030 (UTC).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, the following definitions and rules apply:
- Non-SpaceX Payload: Any active, functional payload—including commercial or government satellites, deep-space probes, space station modules, or scientific instruments—that is owned, operated, or primary-contracted by an entity other than SpaceX (such as NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, a foreign space agency, a university, or a third-party commercial operator).
- Crewed & Lunar Missions:
