Current implied probability
No 94%
No 94%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$291.6
Low liquidityTraders
6
Comments
1
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft with a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2028.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the manned mission is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.
- This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2028 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.
