Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 36 minutes ago
Apr 20, 23, 12:07 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
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Rules
This question will resolve as YES if a human crewed spacecraft successfully lands on the surface of Mars and returns safely to Earth before December 31, 2040.
- The mission must be launched by a national government or an organization backed by a government, and must be publicly announced prior to the launch.
- The mission will count as successful even if it encounters minor setbacks or challenges, as long as the crew is able to land on Mars and return safely to Earth.
- However, if the mission is cancelled or delayed indefinitely before launch, or if it fails to reach Mars or return to Earth, the question will resolve as NO.
- The use of unmanned probes and rovers on Mars will not count towards this question - only a successful human crewed mission will result in a YES resolution.
- Apr 20, 11:18pm: Will there be a manned mission to Mars before 2030? → Will there be a manned mission to Mars before 2040?
