KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Dec 11, 2026 95%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before Dec 11, 2026 95%Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Open interest
$27K
High open interestSpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 3:30 PM UTCOct 30, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
PolymarketStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsReal banana visible during SpaceX Starship Mars mission broadcast in 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:SpaceX
- For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX
Rules for each outcome
- Before Dec 11, 2026
- If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Dec 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 27, 2026
- If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 13, 2026
- If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 30, 2026
- If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 16, 2026
- If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Before Dec 11, 2026 is 95%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point.
CoinRithm reference Before Dec 11, 2026 95% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Limitless — SpaceX Starship 15th launch? · Before Dec 11, 2026 94%