KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before 2027 29%
Before 2027 29%Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$120.8
Open interest
$39.9K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 2, 26, 2:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
PolymarketStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsReal banana visible during SpaceX Starship Mars mission broadcast in 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
If the SpaceX Starship has launched from Florida before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSThe New York TimesAxiosCNNReutersThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2027
- If the SpaceX Starship has launched from Florida before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If the SpaceX Starship has launched from Florida before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…? · June 30, 2027 93%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — When will Starship launch from Florida for the first time? · Before 2027-07-01 92%