Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 7:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastBefore 2027-07-01 86.8%-2.3ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleMay 20, 24, 1:25 PMJul 1, 27, 9:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before 2027-01-0122%
Compare venues· Before 2027-07-01
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · verified | Medium | 35% | — | $24.8 | $21K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 87% | — | — | — | 10 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
5.0 pts5mo
-5.0pt35%
13%
2%
51 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$56.4K
24h Vol$24.8
KALSHIRules
As of May 2024, SpaceX and FAA are going through the Environmental assessment to clear SpaceX Starship rocket to be launched from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
- It is anticipated that for Artemis III mission both launch location will be used.
- This question will resolve positively as soon as an orbital launch is attempted with Starship+Superheavy rocket from a launch pad in Kennedy Space Center.
- The question resolves positively even if the launch fails after the takeoff.
- Suborbital launches do not count.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$27Jul 94d of dataJul 17
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As of May 2024, SpaceX and FAA are going through the Environmental assessment to clear SpaceX Starship rocket to be launched from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
- It is anticipated that for Artemis III mission both launch location will be used.
- This question will resolve positively as soon as an orbital launch is attempted with Starship+Superheavy rocket from a launch pad in Kennedy Space Center.
- The question resolves positively even if the launch fails after the takeoff.
- Suborbital launches do not count.
- I do not bet on my own questions.