Current community forecast
Before 2033 60.1%Leader of 9 outcomes
Before 2033 60.1%Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 24, 7:16 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
Manifold MarketsWhere will we have our first non-earth human baby?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
The market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX Starship spacecraft launches from or lands on the Earth with human astronauts on board.
- At least one passenger has to survive the maneuver.
- I do not bet on my own markets.
- Similar question about humans on board at any time in the flight:
- @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-fly-in-space-wit
- Related questions: