Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
In 2030 or earlier 41.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 24, 7:16 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Rules
The market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX Starship spacecraft launches from or lands on the Earth with human astronauts on board.
- At least one passenger has to survive the maneuver.
- I do not bet on my own markets.
- Similar question about humans on board at any time in the flight:
- @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-fly-in-space-wit
- Related questions:
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $69,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.3pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
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- Anthropic+4.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-1.7pt9.9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+7.5pt55.9%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.3%
- 90-114+1.9pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers??
- Manifold Markets prices In 2030 or earlier at 42% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers? resolve?
- When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX Starship spacecraft launches from or lands on the Earth with human astronauts on board.