Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

5 100%

Leader of 15 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Nov 22, 23, 5:27 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Options resolve YES when Starship has launched that many times and still hasn't launched with at least one human on board.

(e.g. when Starship launches for the fifth time, "5" resolves YES and the other options remain open)
When Starship launches with at least one human on board, all remaining options resolve NO.
If Starship is permanently retired such that no more launches are expected, and it still hasn't flown any humans, all remaining options resolve NO.
Only full-stack (booster and ship) launches count, but they don't have to be orbital launches.
Launches before market creation count, starting with the April 20, 2023 launch.

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