Current community forecast
No 51%
Forecasters
65
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 23, 2:12 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will Starship launch at least as many times as Falcon 9?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiWhen will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt87.1%
- OpenAI-1.0pt10.9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.6M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Total Vol
- $178.5K
- 24h Vol
- $45.5K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- September 26+21.5pt87%
- Successful splash down?+1.0pt84%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8+3.0pt88%
- Above 9-15.0pt57%
- Above 10-10.0pt23%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030? resolve?
- Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.