Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Later than 2040 or never 37.4%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 29, 24, 8:11 AM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiWhen will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which year will Starship first launch with 50 or more people on board??
- Manifold Markets prices Later than 2040 or never at 37% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In which year will Starship first launch with 50 or more people on board? resolve?
- In which year will Starship first launch with 50 or more people on board? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2040.