Current implied probability
2 2%-5.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0.5
Liquidity
$30.8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 7.0%
Spread
250.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
May 27, 26, 12:30 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
22%
Also available on Polymarket
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
1.1%6mo
-4.5%52%
-1.5%26%
+4.3%10%
+5 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$464.8K
24h Vol$358.7
POLYMARKETRules
If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight.
- Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times.
- (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
- If exactly 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If exactly 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight.
- Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times.
- (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
- If exactly 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If exactly 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.