KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
5 44.4%-6.0ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$37.3
Liquidity
$25K
High liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 27, 26, 12:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
PolymarketReal banana visible during SpaceX Starship Mars mission broadcast in 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:SpaceX
- A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight.
- Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times.
- (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
- If exactly 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If exactly 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? · <5 51%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? · 3 or more 98%
- Also available on Kalshi — How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026? · Above 3 85%
- Also available on Limitless — How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 5-6 46%
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+26.0pt60.4%
- 180-199-7.5pt32.7%
- 200-219-9.9pt4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $371.9K
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.9%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.3%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $297.1K
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Total Vol
- $254K
- 24h Vol
- $250.1K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026??
- Kalshi prices 5 at 44% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026? resolve?
- How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Manifold Markets, Kalshi, Limitless.