KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 11:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
5 · —
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Stored price
5 46%Leader of 10 outcomes
5 46%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$992
Open interest
$35.4K
High open interestBid / Ask
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5Spread
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Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
May 27, 26, 12:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · 5
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship 15th launch?
KalshiWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
PolymarketRules
If exactly 5 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:SpaceX
- A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times. (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
Rules for each outcome
- 5
- If exactly 5 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4
- If exactly 4 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3
- If exactly 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1 or below
- If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7
- If exactly 7 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 8
- If exactly 8 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 9
- If exactly 9 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 10 or above
- If above 9 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 6
- If exactly 6 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2
- If exactly 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? · <5 61%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? · 3 or more 100%
- Also available on Kalshi — How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026? · Above 3 91%
- Also available on Limitless — How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 5-6 65%