Current implied probability
2 5%+1.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$980.5
Liquidity
$16K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 8.0%
Spread
166.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
May 27, 26, 12:30 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
25%
Compare venues· 5-6
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 51% | -16pt | $980.5 | $16K | 19 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket90% match · auto | Medium | 67% | 0pt | $847.9 | $18.4K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| Kalshi80% match · linked | Low | 88% | +21pt | $0 | $2.6K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless90% match · auto | Low | 67% | 0pt | $0 | $0 | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 89% | +22pt | — | — | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
7.5%5mo
+7.5%67%
-5.5%19%
-0.6%11%
+5 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$489.6K
24h Vol$847.9
POLYMARKETAlso available on Limitless
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5mo
66.5%
19.3%
11.8%
+5 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$24.6
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
5mo
-1.8%89.2%
-1.9%60.9%
+1.5%27%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast60 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
5mo
88%
71%
38%
+7 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.3K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight.
- Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times.
- (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
- If exactly 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If exactly 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$980Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight.
- Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times.
- (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
- If exactly 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If exactly 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.